The photo below shows how the Gamchi glacier has changed since 2011:
Changes at Gamchi glacier in the years 2011 to 2020.
Legend:
The yellow dots show the outline of the glacier in June 2011.
The orange dots show the outlines of the zones that still contained glacier ice in June 2020.
Soon ice-free zones
1) Under the debris visible in the photo lie the last remnants of dead ice. This dead ice will have melted in 1-2 years.
2) Beneath the debris visible in the photo lies glacial ice that is still 10-20m (estimate) thick. This ice has steadily decreased in thickness in recent years. This trend is likely to continue.
3) The upper part of the glacier is expected to lose contact with the lower part of the glacier in 2020 or 2021. The ice supply in the lower part of the glacier will then be further reduced.
4) What is difficult for us to assess is how much ice this ridge still contains. The upper part of the ridge has hardly changed in recent years.
Replenishment with ice and snow
5) Snow will continue to slide from the north face of the Morgenhorn and deposit on the mighty cones and on the upper part of the glacier.
6) Ice will continue to break off from the glacier below, to the northeast of the summit of Morgenhorn, and supply the area around 10) with supplies.
7) A part of the Morgenhorn glacier branches off at the Blüemlisalpsattel and breaks off towards the Gamchi glacier. Ice will also continue to break off from this branch of the Morgenhorn Glacier and deposit in the area around 10).
What will remain for the time being
8) The upper part of the Gamchi glacier should be able to hold on for a while, thanks to the snow that has slid off the east face of the protrusion of the Morgenhorn.
9) The two mighty cones of snow and ice should also be able to hold for a while longer.
10) In this zone, the glacier ice should also be able to hold for a longer time.
Impact
A) In the next 5 - 10 years, only the three zones of ice described above will remain of the once proud Gamchi Glacier.
B) As the ice melts, the storage function of this very ice will be lost. Once all dead ice (zones 1 and 2) has melted, the discharge of water will decrease and the distribution of discharge will change seasonally.
C) It is difficult to estimate the consequences that the lack of counter-pressure from the glacier ice and the disappearing permafrost will have on the surrounding rock walls.
D) Parts of the glacier foreland are already being colonised by pioneer plants. In the northernmost part, first bushes grow up to about 0.5m high and 1-2 songbirds stay in this area. The glacier foreland will be further revegetated in the coming decades.
The changes at Gamchi glacier are likely to be exemplary for numerous small and medium-sized glaciers in the Alps and worldwide.